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WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | December 4, 2023
The Markets We’re cycling along. It’s easy to forget that economic activity tends to move in cycles. A full cycle, known as the business cycle, typically includes four stages: Contraction occurs when economic growth...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | November 27, 2023
The Markets In November, investors were more optimistic than consumers. At the start of November, investors were decidedly bearish. During the week of November 1, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey found that about 50 percent of...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | November 20, 2023
The Markets Is it done? (We’re not talking about the turkey.) Last week, investors enthusiastically embraced the idea that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could be done raising rates – and that it might even begin to lower...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | November 14, 2023
The Markets Earnings grew in the third quarter. Four times a year, during earnings season, publicly traded companies report how well they performed during the previous quarter. The strength of corporate earnings –...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | November 6, 2023
The Markets Will there be a year-end rally? Last week, there was a lot of speculation about whether the United States will see a year-end stock market rally. Some say yes, and some say no. For example, at Bank of America, “Chief...
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WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | October 23, 2023
The Markets Stay calm and consider the big picture. Today, investors have a myriad of worries that are creating tremendous uncertainty. A September Investopedia survey found investors are concerned about how their investments may be...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | October 16, 2023
The Markets Markets were resilient. Last week, investors had a lot to process – geopolitics, inflation, consumer sentiment, the possibility of government shutdown – and markets were volatile. Toward the end of the week,...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | October 09, 2023
The Markets Financial markets lost ground during the third quarter. While year-to-date returns for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index remain above the historic average, which was 10.24 percent, including dividends, from 1973...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | October 02, 2023
The Markets Inflation is slowing but consumers aren’t feeling it. In August, for the first time in two years, inflation (excluding volatile food and energy costs) dropped below four percent. Last week, one of the Federal Reserve...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | September 25, 2023
The Markets How high will they go? Just as the market anticipated, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) chose not to raise interest rates last week. However, Fed officials made it clear another rate increase might be...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | September 18, 2023
The Markets Adding new ingredients to the economic blender. The performance of the United States economy in 2023 has been as unexpected as a lentil-avocado-cinnamon smoothie – a tasty surprise. Last week, economic data suggested...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | September 11, 2023
The Markets All the work, work, work. 2023 has been a remarkable year so far. It has, “confounded economists, humbled forecasters, and rewarded investors. Despite a rapid rise in interest rates, the U.S. economy continues to grow...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | September 6, 2023
The Markets Lowering inflation. If you’ve ever waited in traffic while the center section of a bridge lifts to allow ships and sailboats to pass underneath, you may have noticed the enormous counterweight that lowers as the...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | September 6, 2023
The Markets Lowering inflation. If you’ve ever waited in traffic while the center section of a bridge lifts to allow ships and sailboats to pass underneath, you may have noticed the enormous counterweight that lowers as the...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | August 27, 2023
The Markets Becalmed. The Chinese government’s zero-COVID policy took the wind from the sails of its economy. When the government finally ended the policy earlier this year, many economists anticipated that pent-up consumer...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | August 21, 2023
The Markets Higher bond yields may be good for income investors – and not so good for stock markets. After more than a decade of near-zero interest rates, the “free money” era – a time when people and businesses...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | August 14, 2023
The Markets Consumer sentiment is a lagging indicator. It’s also a contrarian indicator. After rising sharply in June and July, consumer sentiment leveled off this month. The preliminary August reading for the University of...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | August 7, 2023
The Markets An unwelcome surprise. Last week, Fitch Ratings startled markets by lowering the credit rating of United States Treasuries from AAA to AA+. It was the second rating agency to downgrade U.S. Treasuries; Standard &...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | July 31, 2023
The Markets Central bank palooza! While music lovers attended concerts and festivals across the United States, central banks had a lollapalooza of their own. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) led things off last Wednesday, followed by the...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | July 24, 2023
The MarketsBetter than expected.In January of this year, the Bloomberg’s MLIV Pulse survey collected and shared investors’ expectations for stock markets. Survey participants were generally a gloomy group. Seventy percent...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | July 17, 2023
The MarketsDisinflation was in the air!To the great relief of the Federal Reserve, the American economy has been experiencing “disinflation,” which is a slowdown in the rate of inflation. For example, last week we learned...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | July 10, 2023
The MarketsMarkets are playing Federal Reserve (Fed) Clue.Last week, investors parsed the monthly Employment Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for clues about whether the Fed will raise the federal funds rate at its...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | July 3, 2023
The MarketsShowing remarkable resilience.Throughout the first half of 2023, the U.S. economy and financial markets proved to be resilient – and so did investors. U.S. stock markets moved higher amid enthusiasm for artificial...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | June 26, 2023
The MarketsThe Artificial Intelligence (AI) Express is traveling fast.Investors are enthusiastic about AI. Late last year, an AI research lab introduced a chatbot that could answer questions – and people were enthralled. Within...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | June 20, 2023
The MarketsRebalancing ahead!There is one decision all investors should make: how to allocate the money they’re investing. Asset allocation decisions are usually based on a myriad of factors: expected returns, potential...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | June 12, 2023
The MarketsLeaping over the wall of worry.The “wall of worry” is an obstacle – or set of obstacles – that investors face. This year, the wall reached a considerable height as inflation, the War in Ukraine,...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | June 5, 2023
The MarketsAs Gomer Pyle used to say, “Surprise, surprise, surprise!”Gomer Pyle USMC was a popular American sitcom in the 1960s. It focused on a naïve, do-gooding auto mechanic from Mayberry RFD who joined the military...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | May 30, 2023
The MarketsIt’s a three-ring circus!For centuries people have embraced the circus. Enjoying the sticky fluff of cotton candy while elephants, clowns and trapeze artists perform in the spotlights. Merriam Webster Dictionary...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | May 22, 2023
The MarketsInvestors aren’t happy, but stocks are up.If you ever participated in a fantasy football league, you may have experienced a run on a position during your draft. One person picks a kicker or defense mid-round and,...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | May 15, 2023
The MarketsBrace yourself! The debt ceiling standoff continues.Consumers aren’t optimistic. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a six-month low in May, dropping 9.1 percent month-to-month. Participants in the University of...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | May 8, 2023
The MarketsThe labor market just keeps growing…and growing…Last week, the April employment report for the United States arrived. It showed that unemployment dropped to the lowest level in more than 50 years – 3.4...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | May 1, 2023
The MarketsGet real!Despite more than a year of aggressive Federal Reserve rate increases, the United States economy is still growing, albeit more slowly. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) – the value of all goods and services...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | April 24, 2023
The MarketsBetter than expected.It’s earnings season – the time when publicly traded companies report on how profitable they were during the first quarter of 2023. So far, reports suggest that companies listed on United...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | April 17, 2023
The MarketsKeep your eye on the big picture.Last week, there was nothing too surprising in economic and financial news.Inflation eased, as expected, although it remained above the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s target rate. The Treasury...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | April 10, 2023
The MarketsAmbiguous images. Some illustrations are optical illusions. When two people view the picture, they may see completely different images. A good example is Rubin’s Vase. One viewer may see a vase, while another sees...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | April 3, 2023
The MarketsPerhaps we should call this a pushmi-pullyu market.The first quarter of 2023 brought Dr. Dolittle’s pushmi-pullyu – the rarest animal of all – to mind. It is the offspring of goat-antelopes and unicorns,...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | March 27, 2023
The MarketsWhat’s your jam?When you think of fun, are you running an Arctic marathon? Biking to your favorite burger place? Gaming with friends online? Each has inherent risk: Polar bears and hypothermia, traffic and flat tires,...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | March 20, 2023
The MarketsUnknowns and uncertainty. Financial markets were volatile last week as investors parsed the risks around bank closures, central banks offered additional protections for depositors, and regulators took a harder look at...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | March 14, 2023
The MarketsThrown for a loop.Early last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress the Fed is committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent. If economic data continues to come in hot, he said, then it’s likely...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | March 6, 2023
The MarketsSibling discord.Stocks and bonds are two of the better-known asset classes in the family of potential investments. Last week, they were in opposition.Bond yields have been moving higher in anticipation of the Federal Reserve...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | February 27, 2023
The MarketsIs it good news or bad news?The answer depends on your perspective. Last week, we learned that:Consumer sentiment is at its highest level in more than a year. Consumers are feeling better about current economic conditions...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | February 21, 2023
The MarketsBrace for a bumpy ride.There were some unwelcome surprises in last week’s economic data that caused markets to reassess expectations for 2023. For example:Inflation didn’t fall as fast as expected. Last week, the...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | February 13, 2023
The MarketsThis time may be different...or it may not be. There has been a lot of speculation about how the Federal Reserve’s policies will affect the United States economy. Economists have differing opinions about whether...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | February 6, 2023
The MarketsWhat do Samuel Clemens (a.k.a. Mark Twain) and the current economic expansion have in common? Author and humorist Twain was prematurely reported to be dead. It first happened in 1897. Twain was on a speaking tour in...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | January 23, 2023
The Markets“It’s hard to be a contrarian for very long these days because the consensus seems to change so quickly,” opined Ed Yardeni via LinkedIn last week.We’ve certainly seen a shift in investors’...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | January 18, 2023
The MarketsBullish or bearish?After last year’s geopolitical turmoil, economic malaise, and tumultuous stock market decline, many financial professionals – from investors to asset managers – have strong opinions about...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | January 9, 2023
The MarketsIt’s being called the “Goldilocks” report.Last Friday, we learned that demand for workers in the United States remained strong in 2022. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5 percent in December. (It was 3.7...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | January 3, 2023
The MarketsIt’s finally over.2022 was a dismal year for financial markets. Major United States stock indices moved lower, trimming, or eliminating the previous year’s gains. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which had...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | December 27, 2022
The MarketsWhat a year! In some ways, it feels as though we lived through several years in 2022. The onslaught of events included, “The first major European war since the 1990s, unprecedented sanctions, energy-price mayhem,...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | December 19, 2022
The MarketsBad news is bad news, once again.For months, investors have cheered bad economic news. When the United States economy showed signs of weakness, stock markets often reflected investor enthusiasm. The thinking was that...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | December 12, 2022
The MarketsWhat comes next?The U.S. stock market tends to be a forward-looking vehicle. Investors make decisions today based on what they think may be ahead for the economy, and how economic change may affect the companies...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | December 5, 2022
The MarketsWhat will it take to slow this economy down?In 2001, railway workers slowed a runaway train in Ohio by latching a second engine to the back of the locomotive and applying the brakes. In all, the train traveled sixty-six...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | November 28, 2022
The MarketsThere was a shift in the winds of monetary policy.Last week, it became clear the Federal Reserve (Fed) had softened its hawkish stance. The minutes of the central bank’s November policy meeting indicated the Fed was...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | November 21, 2022
The MarketsThanksgiving and football go together like turkey and stuffing. For some families, though, this year may be more like a turducken, stuffed with American football and the sport the rest of the world knows as football...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | November 14, 2022
The MarketsLast week was remarkable for many reasons. One reason is that sky watchers around the world had an opportunity to see a total lunar eclipse. The moon, Earth and sun aligned, causing the moon to appear crimson. We...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | November 7, 2022
The MarketsIt’s the lag time.To no one’s surprise, the Federal Reserve continued to battle inflation last week, raising the federal funds rate for the fourth time this year, reported Claire Ballentine of Bloomberg. The Fed...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | October 31, 2022
The MarketsSome companies are doing better than others – a lot better. It’s earnings season; the time when companies share how well they performed during the previous quarter. Earnings reports are important because...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | October 24, 2022
The MarketsMarkets turned – again.Markets continue to be volatile. Last week, stocks headed north. Nicholas Jasinski of Barron’s reported the change of direction reflected investors’ desire for the market to finally...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | October 17, 2022
The MarketsWe’re not there yet.Investors are understandably eager for the stock market to hit bottom. Some hoped it happened last week, but it did not. Despite the Fed’s rate hikes, last week the Consumer Price Index...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | October 10, 2022
The MarketsBah humbug!Last week, OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied oil producers like Russia, chose to cut production by two million barrels a day. The stated goal is to keep crude...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | October 3, 2022
The MarketsThe third quarter marked a change in attitude.So far, 2022 has been a tough year for investing. We’ve experienced an unusual phenomenon – the simultaneous decline of stock and bond markets. Throughout the third...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | September 26, 2022
The MarketsCentral bank tightening sparked recession fears.Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the federal funds rate for the fifth time this year. During 2022, the Fed has lifted its benchmark rate from near zero to 3.12...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | September 19, 2022
The MarketsIt’s open to interpretation.Jackson Pollock was an action painter. He poured, dropped, and dripped paint onto horizontal canvases. Some people look at his work and wonder why it’s highly valued. Others find deep...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | September 12, 2022
The MarketsCentral banks are hawkish. Stocks popped higher, anyway. Last week, despite signs that inflation is slowing, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials emphasized their commitment to tightening monetary policy to lower...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | September 5, 2022
The MarketsYou may have heard this one: Don’t fight the Fed.The Fed is the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States. Among other things, the Fed influences monetary conditions in pursuit of price stability and full employment....
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | August 29, 2022
The MarketsMarkets were tuned to the signals coming from Jackson Hole, Wyoming.During World War II, United States armed forces often relied on high-powered radio sets to communicate. When determining whether transmissions were garbled...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | August 22, 2022
The MarketsIs this a bear market rally or a new bull market?Investment professionals are in the middle of a heated debate. Since mid-June, United States stock markets have moved higher, regaining about $7 trillion as many investors who...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | August 15, 2022
The MarketsRally caps were waving.In recent weeks, investors have embraced the idea that economic data will persuade the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate hikes. Last week’s inflation data fanned their enthusiasm.The big...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | August 8, 2022
The MarketsThe strength of the United States economy continues to surprise.If you have ever been camping, you may have banked your campfire by covering the hot coals with ash. It’s a process that keeps the...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | August 1, 2022
The MarketsInvestors thought they heard a dovish note from the Federal Reserve and markets rallied.Last week, we learned from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that economic growth in the United States slowed for the second...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | July 25, 2022
The MarketsA lot of people are worried that a recession may be in our future. Some think it may already be here.Unemployment is low (3.6 percent), and inflation is high (9.1 percent). Both tend to occur when an economy is experiencing...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | July 18, 2022
The MarketsNobody is happy, but Americans are feeling more optimistic. Last week, headlines blasted the new inflation numbers. Prices were up more than 9% year-over-year in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | July 11, 2022
The MarketsRising inflation is a bit like a child throwing a temper tantrum in the grocery store.The red-faced parent, in this case the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), tries to calm the child. Sometimes, it works and the child calms down...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | July 4, 2022
The MarketsThe first six months of 2022 have earned a place in history books.2022 is likely to become part of the lore passed from generation to generation. Stories will be told about this bear market, as well as the remarkable...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | June 27, 2022
The MarketsLast week, bad news was good news.Consumers were feeling blue in June, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. The survey scored sentiment at 50, which was the lowest level on record. Surveys of...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | June 20, 2022
The MarketsThe fight against inflation intensified.Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a message that it is serious about fighting inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lifted the federal funds target rate by 0...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | June 13, 2022
The MarketsInflation is proving to be far more tenacious than markets had hoped. The idea that inflation peaked in March was put to rest last week when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation accelerated in May....
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | June 6, 2022
The MarketsHow strong is the United States economy?That’s the question investors were mulling after last week’s jobs report.More jobs were created in May than economists expected, and the labor force participation rate rose...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | May 31, 2022
The MarketsInvestors reassessed and markets bounced.Last week, major U.S. stock indices moved higher for the first time in weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 6.2 percent, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 6.6...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | May 23, 2022
The MarketsOn the fear and greed cycle.One of the most challenging times for investors is a market downturn. Whether markets are experiencing a correction or a bear market, it’s really disturbing to watch the value of your...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | NOVEMBER 29, 2021
The Markets COVID-19 strikes again. Coronavirus cases have been on the rise in Europe, climbing from about 700,000 new cases a week in September to 2.6 million a week in November, reported Richard Pérez-Peña and Jason...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | NOVEMBER 22, 2021
The Markets Thinking about the possibilities. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index finished last week slightly higher and has gained about 6 percent during the past 25 days; however, investors have curbed their enthusiasm. The...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | NOVEMBER 15, 2021
The Markets Economists like to joke that inflation is just right when no one notices it. Last week, investors noticed it. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a measure of inflation, rose 0.9 percent in October and 6.2 percent over...
Read MoreWEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY | MAY 10, 2021
The Markets Like a gender reveal gone wrong, last week’s employment report delivered an unexpected surprise. Economists estimated 975,000 new jobs would be created in April. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)...
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