Market Commentary March 25, 2019

Updated: May 20, 2019



Wonder what the Federal Reserve's

40-yard dash time is?

On Wednesday, the Fed juked like an NFL running back and left investors wondering whether they should buy or sell. Heather Long of The Washington Post reported the U.S. central bank:

  1. Lowered its 2019 estimate for U.S. economic growth to 2.1 percent

  2. Announced its intention not to raise rates in 2019

  3. Indicated it will stop shrinking its balance sheet in September


Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained, "My colleagues and I have one overarching goal: to sustain the economic expansion with a strong job market and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. The U.S. economy is in a good place and we will continue to use our monetary policy tools to keep it there...We continue to expect that the American economy will grow at solid pace in 2019, although slower than the very strong pace of 2018."


The Fed's decision to adopt a looser monetary policy was informed by a variety of factors, including slower economic growth in the United States, China, and Europe, as well as unresolved policy issues like Brexit and ongoing trade negotiations.


Investors weren't sure what to make of the Fed's moves. Initially, major U.S. stock indices trended higher as investors celebrated the benefits of accommodative monetary policy. By the end of the week, though, many investors had changed their minds and fled to 'safe haven' investments, pushing long-term Treasury rates lower. Alexandra Scaggs of Barron's reported:


"When short-term yields rise above long-term yields, it's known as an

inverted yield curve, which is seen even by central bankers as a sign that

an economic contraction could be on the way...Benchmark 10-year

Treasuries rallied Friday morning, driving their yields below those of the

three-month U.S. Treasury."


So, is recession imminent in the United States? It's possible but unlikely. According to a source cited by Barron's, the last six times the yield curve inverted for 10 days or longer, recession occurred within the next two years.


No matter how the economy and/or markets perform, it may not be a good idea to make sudden portfolio changes. If you're feeling uncertain, give us a call. We can discuss changes you may want to make to your portfolio.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.


SCANDINAVIA SWEEPS AGAIN. The 2019 United Nation's World Happiness Report was published last week. The Finns remain the happiest people in the world. In fact, happiness in Finland has been trending higher since 2014.


People in Denmark and Norway also are happier than they were previously. The average score for the Danes increased by more than the average score for the Norwegians, so Denmark is now second and Norway third.


The report's authors explained, "...the top countries tend to have high values for most of the key variables that have been found to support well-being: income, healthy life expectancy, social support, freedom, trust, and generosity."


The 10 happiest countries in the world, according to the report, which aggregated data on 156 countries from Gallup World Polls, are:


  1. Finland (7.769)

  2. Denmark (7.600)

  3. Norway (7.554)

  4. Iceland (7.494)

  5. Netherlands (7.488)

  6. Switzerland (7.480)

  7. Sweden (7.343)

  8. New Zealand (7.307)

  9. Canada (7.278)

  10. Austria (7.246)


Since the report began, happiness has increased most dramatically in Benin (#102), Nicaragua (#45), Bulgaria (#97), Latvia (#53), and Togo (#139).


The United States came in at #19. Overall, happiness levels in the U.S. have declined by almost 0.5 since the report was first issued. The report stated:


"Several credible explanations have been posited to explain the decline in happiness among adult Americans, including declines in social capital and social support (Sachs, 2017) and increases in obesity and substance abuse (Sachs, 2018)...I suggest another, complementary explanation: that Americans are less happy due to fundamental shifts in how they spend their leisure time...the way adolescents socialize has fundamentally shifted, moving toward online activities and away from face-to-face social interaction."


Weekly Focus - Think About It

"The human race has only one really effective weapon and that is laughter."

--Mark Twain, American author


Best regards,

Greg C.

Greg Clifton, ChFC, CFP®, MBA


2525 Ridgmar Boulevard

Suite 224

Fort Worth, TX 76116

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www.cliftoncapital.com


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* This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.

* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.

* The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results.

* You cannot invest directly in an index.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

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Sources:


http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/05/week-american-monetary-policy

http://news.yahoo.com/column-many-interpretations-ben-bernanke-164318124.html

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20130501a.htm

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/27/usa-stocks-weekahead-idUSL2N0E80JW20130527

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/24/3415072/how-the-dow-jones-industrial-average.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/27/markets-precious-idUSL3N0E809S20130527

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/26/us-usa-fed-summer-idUSBRE94P07T20130526

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/05/daily-chart-14

http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2013/05/apples-tax-arrangements

http://www.ncsl.org/issues-research/budget/collecting-ecommerce-taxes-an-interactive-map.aspx

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidmarotta/2013/05/12/marketplace-fairness-act-adds-automation-to-tax-confusion/

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/senate-passes-marketplace-fairness-act-208385131.html

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/t/thomas_carlyle.html

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