Market Commentary August 5, 2019


Tariffs Strike Again.


The Federal Open Market Committee completed what it called 'a mid-cycle adjustment' with a quarter-point rate cut last week. Some investors were unhappy when Fed officials implied there would not be another reduction this year. They'd been hoping for at least one, reported Barron's.


Despite the disappointment, investors settled and U.S. stock markets rallied on Thursday.


Then, like a movie villain that just won't die, U.S. import taxes - a.k.a. tariffs - reared their ugly heads and wiped out the week's gains. Barron's explained:

"By midday on Thursday, the stock market had all but recouped its losses in the wake of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting the previous day. That's when President Donald Trump announced that he will impose a 10 percent levy on an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods on September 1. The shock sent stocks underwater and resulted in this year's worst week for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite, which slid 3.1 percent and 3.92 percent, respectively. The Dow got off with just a 2.6 percent nick. For the broad U.S. stock market, the paper loss was about $1.1 trillion, according to Wilshire Associates."


Tariffs have pummeled U.S. and Chinese economies for months. Early estimates suggest imports from China to the United States fell by 12.6 percent from June 2018 to June 2019, while exports from the United States to China fell by 16.8 percent during the same period, according to a source cited by Barron's.


Bond investors were jolted by the tariff announcement, too. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes dropped from 2.1 percent last week to 1.9 percent, reported MarketWatch. In Germany, all maturities of government bonds are offering negative yields.


In the face-off between rate cuts and tariffs, tariffs may prove to have a greater impact.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

DOES FLYING TRIGGER YOUR LIZARD BRAIN?

Flight attendants and frequent fliers have some crazy stories to tell. Lets Fly Cheaper, Business Insider, and Point Me To The Plane reported on some of the strange things flight attendants have experienced, including:

  • Medicated sleep zombies. Passengers sometimes take sleep aids to slumber while flying. In one instance, a passenger sleep-streaked to first class.

  • Emotional support animals (ESAs). In an effort to remain calm while flying, some people bring pets for emotional support. These have included a turkey, a pig, a monkey, and a kangaroo.

  • Impatient passengers. In 2014, a passenger deployed the emergency slide because he wanted to disembark more quickly.

  • Strange requests. Flight attendants report passengers have asked how to roll down plane windows, if they could stop at the Sky Mall, and whether they could borrow a screwdriver to take a seat apart.


A flight attendant told NPR, "When people get on a plane, they revert to a lizard brain where they forget all social decencies and common sense...Flying takes away everybody's sense of control. So people tend to grasp at whatever kind of control they can have..."


There may be a scientific explanation for passengers' odd plane behavior. NPR reported that low air pressure reduces the oxygen in passengers' blood, making them more emotional and more prone to poor decision-making.


Weekly Focus - Think About It

"The lizard brain is not merely a concept. It's real, and it's living on the top of your spine, fighting for your survival. But, of course, survival and success are not the same thing."

--Seth Godin, American author


Best regards,

Greg C.

Greg Clifton, ChFC, CFP®, MBA


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* This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.

* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.

* The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results.

* You cannot invest directly in an index.

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Sources:


http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/05/week-american-monetary-policy

http://news.yahoo.com/column-many-interpretations-ben-bernanke-164318124.html

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20130501a.htm

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/27/usa-stocks-weekahead-idUSL2N0E80JW20130527

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/24/3415072/how-the-dow-jones-industrial-average.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/27/markets-precious-idUSL3N0E809S20130527

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/26/us-usa-fed-summer-idUSBRE94P07T20130526

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/05/daily-chart-14

http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2013/05/apples-tax-arrangements

http://www.ncsl.org/issues-research/budget/collecting-ecommerce-taxes-an-interactive-map.aspx

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidmarotta/2013/05/12/marketplace-fairness-act-adds-automation-to-tax-confusion/

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/senate-passes-marketplace-fairness-act-208385131.html

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/t/thomas_carlyle.html

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